Value Finder
Where our model disagrees with the market
Value exists when the probability our model assigns to an outcome is higher than what the bookmaker odds imply. A positive edge means the market may be underpricing that outcome based on historical data.
RCB to Win IPL 2026
20.0%
at 5.0024.0%
title probability+4.0%
model advantage1.2%
of bankrollWhy the Model Disagrees with the Market
Defending champions (won IPL 2025), 2-0 start, league-best NRR at +2.50. Only two games played but both convincing: beat SRH by 6 wickets, hammered CSK by 43 runs. Kohli-Salt-Hazlewood core plus Chinnaswamy home advantage. Model rates them the favorite at 24%, slight edge over the market's 20%.
Expected value: +20p per £1 staked. For every £1 the model suggests this bet is worth £1.20 in the long run.
IPL 2026 Winner — Full Market
| Team | Record | NRR | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCB | 2-0 | +2.50 | 4/1 | 20.0% | 24% | +4.0% | VALUE |
| CSK | 0-3 | -2.52 | 40/1 | 2.4% | 4% | +1.6% | FAIR |
| MI | 1-2 | -0.71 | 9/1 | 10.0% | 11% | +1.0% | FAIR |
| KKR | 0-3-1NR | -1.31 | 33/1 | 2.9% | 3% | +0.1% | FAIR |
| RR | 3-0 | +2.40 | 7/2 | 22.2% | 22% | -0.2% | FAIR |
| SRH | 1-2 | +0.28 | 14/1 | 6.7% | 6% | -0.7% | FAIR |
| GT | 1-2 | -0.27 | 12/1 | 7.7% | 7% | -0.7% | FAIR |
| PBKS | 2-0-1NR | +0.64 | 5/1 | 16.7% | 14% | -2.7% | AVOID |
| LSG | 2-1 | -0.36 | 12/1 | 7.7% | 4% | -3.7% | AVOID |
| DC | 2-1 | +0.81 | 15/2 | 11.8% | 6% | -5.8% | AVOID |
Overround: 108.1%. Source: Standings from Wikipedia (verified). Odds estimated from Sports News Blitz pre-tournament baseline + current-form adjustments (live bookmaker APIs blocked).. Model probabilities sum to 100% (no overround).
Match-Level Value
View all matchesMatch-level odds are not currently available. Tournament-winner value is the focus of today's analysis — see the table above. Individual match previews with model probabilities are available on the matches page.
How It Works
1. Model Probability
We compute win probabilities from 6,847 T20 matches using venue stats, squad strength, head-to-head records, and player-venue fit grades. No AI, no gut feel — pure historical data.
2. Implied Probability
Bookmaker odds translate directly to implied probability. Odds of 40/1 imply a 2.4% chance. We strip the overround to compare apples-to-apples with our model.
3. Edge & Value
When our model says 8% and the market says 2.4%, the edge is +5.6%. Value exists when the market underprices an outcome. Quarter-Kelly sizing manages risk.
Important
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial or betting advice. Model probabilities are derived from historical data and may not reflect current conditions, injuries, or team changes. Odds are indicative and may differ from what is currently available. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always exercise independent judgment and only stake what you can afford to lose. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, contact the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.